by
Austin BaySeptember 17, 2025
On Sept. 10, Russian long-range strike drones entered Polish airspace. Several detonated, destroying houses and vehicles.
A Polish government source told media that Russian Shahed offensive drones attacked from Ukraine and from Belarus. Ukraine is a war zone, but Belarus is a Kremlin puppet.
NATO later reported the drones were Russian Gerbera drones, a Russian knockoff of the Iranian Shahed. Gerberas are part plywood and paste, reminiscent of World War I wood and wire biplanes. But suicide drones bearing high explosives can kill. They are essentially cheap ballistic missiles, and like a ballistic missile, it can ignite a war.
Full halt. The Sept. 10 Russian drone offensive -- and it was an intentional offensive operation -- did not ignite a war with NATO.
So far. Why not?
Cool heads. The NATO alliance's 32 member nations have cool-headed leaders.
Why the cool-headed response? Nuclear war is deadly. Vladimir Putin and other hotheads in the Kremlin know that to be true. However, at a deep and evil level Putin-type dictators calculate democratic nations won't pull the nuclear trigger if armed plywood and wire unmanned aerial vehicles attack and draw no blood.
So why would the Kremlin risk it? The secondary reason: The drone attack serves as a military probe testing NATO military reactions.
The primary reason: The attack tests NATO political reactions. Putin hopes trigger hesitation will induce mass weakness. When cool-headed hesitation occurs, Putin hopes European NATO members will interpret coolness as cowardice and -- the big Kremlin's heavy bet -- doubt U.S. commitments to defend Europe with nuclear weapons.
It's a 21st-century replay of the 1983 so-called Euro Missile Crisis. Sort of.
Putin isn't simply testing Donald Trump. Putin can't accept Russia's Cold War loss. The U.S. nuclear shield -- complemented by British and French nuclear forces -- deterred Russian conventional war on NATO's European members. Vlad still doesn't believe it worked.
NATO Article 5 is the kicker Vlad can't accept.
Article 5 says a belligerent's offensive attack on a NATO member means the belligerent is now at war with all 32 NATO nations. The Three Musketeers Clause, one for all and all for one.
Ukraine isn't a NATO member and isn't protected by NATO's Article 5.
But Poland is.
On Sept. 10, Polish and NATO ground-based air defense systems (missile and anti-aircraft guns) detected the attacking drones. And Moscow learned something about NATO's air defense response time.
Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s on patrol over NATO's eastern nations intercepted and shot down several drones. Later reports also said Italian air control aircraft aided the interception.
After action reports said NATO aircraft used U.S.-made AIM 120C-7 AMRAAMs to destroy the Russian drones. An AIM 120C costs about $2 million. The Gerberas? The accepted figure is $12,000.
Russia learned NATO allies, in a coordinated air defense operation, will shoot down intruding drones. After action reports said this was the first time NATO aircraft had engaged "enemy" targets over NATO allied territory.
The alliance did not immediately counterattack. But to conclude the alliance won't counterattack? That's a big leap.
On Sept. 10, Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told U.S. media the attack lasted seven hours and one drone landed near his home. (Sikorski also serves as foreign minister.) He also said the attack was not a mistake, emphasizing drones crossed the Polish border on two axes, from Ukraine but also Belarus, Russia's ally.
Poland knows the attacks were deliberate.
Several Western strategic experts reached the same conclusion, which tells me NATO intelligence knows the attacks were deliberate.
The Kremlin got a diplomatic reaction. Poland called for a NATO Article 4 consult, an emergency meeting within the alliance to discuss the situation and consider alliance response options. A NATO member may call for an Article 4 consult when it feels threatened. Usually, NATO will issue a solidarity statement and condemn the actor threatening the NATO nation.
Article 4 has been invoked seven times since NATO was founded in 1949. The most recent invocation took place on Feb. 24, 2022, the day Russia began its all-out invasion to destroy Ukraine. In February 2020, Turkey invoked it after Russian-backed Syrian forces killed several Turkish troops in Syria.
"We are dealing with a large-scale provocation," Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said regarding the Article 4 appeal. "The situation is serious, and no one doubts that we must prepare for various scenarios."
The killer option is to invoke NATO Article 5, the "go to war" option.
Below Article 5? Britain said it would send more aircraft to defend Poland. Germany said it would send troops. Another dozen NATO nations have promised weapons and personnel. At the moment, the U.S. has around 10,000 ground troops in Poland, part of a rotational contingent (basically two heavy brigades). On Sept. 11, Poland indicated it wants more U.S. troops. U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go!"
The Russian probe has put NATO on alert. War may not be imminent, but Russia has attacked a NATO country. The Kremlin claims it was an accident. The Kremlin wants to bait, probe, act invincible and claim NATO is a paper tiger. But words and attitude don't erase obvious mistake: Russia has attacked a NATO country. One U.S. congressman has already said Ukraine must have long-range weapons to strike at Russian drone and missile systems -- and the attack on Poland proves Ukraine must have that capability.
"Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war," Shakespeare's Marc Antony said. Putin may live long enough to regret letting slip his drones on Poland.